A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
